
The Renewable Fuels Association estimates the ethanol industry lost $3.8 billion from the COVID-19 pandemic. The industry lost about 2 billion gallons of production from March through November 2020, equal to roughly 700 million bushels of corn.
Production and consumption fell nearly 50% in April before partly recovering.
The lost ethanol output removed a large block of corn demand in 2020, and the continued losses into late 2020 kept grind and DDGS supplies constrained. The effect on prices is mostly backward-looking, so it is a modest factor for buyers today.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.