
Malaysian palm oil futures rose 1.9% on Thursday to close at 3,283 ringgit a tonne, recovering from a near two-and-a-half-month low. Floods and heavy rain in Malaysia and Indonesia are delaying harvests and crop evacuation.
A Reuters poll sees 2021 output rising 1.8% in Indonesia and 2.4% in Malaysia, with 2021 prices averaging 2,800 ringgit a tonne.
Flood-related harvest delays tighten near-term supply and support prices, though analysts expect production to recover in the second half of the year, limiting the upside.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.