
The American Farm Bureau Federation economist said the incoming Biden administration's China policy, including the Phase One deal, is the key uncertainty for agriculture. Pandemic recovery, ad hoc aid, a 2023 farm bill and climate policy were also flagged as unresolved.
Uncertainty over China purchase commitments keeps a risk premium on US soybeans and corn, so any clarity on Phase One could move export-linked feed prices.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.