The 20th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, held by videoconference, reaffirmed earlier production decisions and approved a monthly upward adjustment of 0.4 mb/d for October 2021. It also extended the compensation period for underperforming countries to the end of December 2021 and reported overall conformity of 110% in July.
A planned increase in OPEC+ output adds supply to a market that has been tightening, which tends to pressure crude prices lower. Stronger compliance and compensation requirements limit how much extra supply actually reaches the market.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.