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The AgEcon long-range outlook reports that the IRI ENSO forecast has improved since January, with La Niña odds still elevated but El Niño seen as a long shot for 2021. A weak La Niña Modoki pattern is maintaining a wet signal for much of eastern Australia's cropping belt, and soil moisture has replenished.
Replenished Australian soil moisture and wetter outlooks point to improving crop prospects, which could bring grain supply pressure and soften Australian wheat and barley prices.
agecon.com.auJon WelshFeb 18, 2021After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
