Thai rice output fell 13% in 2020 after reduced rainfall, and the USDA says off-season irrigation is critically low. Farmers are shifting to newer, high-yielding Vietnamese varieties, including 'soft cooking' types not yet marketed for export.
Lower Thai output and weaker competitiveness of Thai white and parboiled rice can support global rice prices, though the expected 5.2% production rebound limits the upside.
After 31 past neutral weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.