
French soft wheat was rated 87% good or excellent in the week to April 5, with winter barley at 85% and spring barley at 92%. Dry conditions were starting to cause concern ahead of a freezing spell that may have damaged some crops.
Strong French crop ratings point to ample EU supply and are mildly bearish for wheat and barley, though the cold snap and dryness are a potential upside risk.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.