
A coalition of airlines, Boeing, Airbus, UPS, FedEx and biofuel producers is lobbying Congress for a tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel worth up to twice the current $1-per-gallon biodiesel credit. SAF costs three to five times conventional jet fuel, and only 4 million gallons were produced in 2020.
The airlines have committed to 2 billion gallons of biofuel use by 2030.
If enacted, new SAF incentives would add a competing source of demand for vegetable oil feedstocks, adding to the food-versus-fuel squeeze. The effect on prices would depend on whether Congress acts.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.