
US renewable diesel producers made about 410 million gallons in the first seven months of 2021, on track to exceed 2020 output. Growth is driven by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard and similar state programs that create credits for soy-based fuel.
Rising renewable diesel output increases competition for soybean oil feedstock, which supports soybean oil prices and crush demand.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.