
The USDA raised its 2021/22 Ukraine wheat crop estimate by 0.5 million tonnes to 29.5 million and its export forecast to 20.5 million. Russia's wheat crop was lifted 1 million tonnes to 86 million, with exports held at 40 million.
Barley estimates for Ukraine also rose.
A bigger Black Sea wheat and barley outlook means more export supply and softer prices for feed grain buyers. Traders had criticized earlier Russian forecasts as too optimistic.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.