
Recent rains came too late for much of Brazil's safrinha corn, and frosts in Paraná added losses. Imea cut its Mato Grosso safrinha estimate to 32 million tonnes from 36 million, with yields expected at their lowest in four years.
The Brazilian real also strengthened to 5.03 per dollar, which cuts farmers' local-currency returns.
Smaller Mato Grosso and Paraná crops reduce Brazilian corn exports and support global corn prices, while a stronger real may slow farmer selling and tighten nearby supply.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.