The dollar and yen rose on July 19 as the Delta COVID variant spread and drove risk aversion. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.176%, a five-month low, and the dollar index hit its highest since April.
A stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment make US commodities pricier for importers, and the drop in yields also reduces Fed tightening expectations, which pressures the dollar index.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Delta-driven risk aversion and a stronger dollar pressured dollar-denominated crude.