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OPEC+ talks ended without agreement after a dispute between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over production baselines. The failure concerned an planned oil output increase from August.
Lack of a deal raised the prospect of uncoordinated supply, pushing Brent crude higher. Higher crude lifts diesel and biofuel feedstock costs, supporting vegetable oil and grain prices.
reuters.comRania Gamal, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex LawlerJul 5, 2021After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Collapse of OPEC+ talks on July 5 left the planned August output increase in doubt; the resulting uncertainty (possible production free-for-all) and sentiment shift plausibly drove the Brent drop on July 6.
