
USDA's July WASDE projected US oat production at only 41 million bushels, the lowest in its 155-year record. Canadian oat output has fallen about 15 percent due to drought, and reduced oat acreage in the US is partly due to competition from corn.
Historically low oat output tightens feed and milling supplies, supporting higher prices for oat buyers.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.