
USDA's July update raised Ukraine's 2021/22 wheat production and export forecasts by 0.5 million tonnes to 30 and 21 million tonnes, and cut Russia's wheat crop by 1 million tonnes to market expectations. Kazakhstan's wheat production and export estimates were lowered, leaving the Black Sea grain crop 0.74% lower at 214.2 million tonnes.
A slightly smaller Black Sea crop and tighter Kazakh supply modestly support wheat prices, while higher Ukrainian exports partly offset the tightening.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.