
The India Meteorological Department forecasts normal to above-normal November rain in parts of central and north-west India, the main wheat-sowing period. Other areas, including West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan and much of Gujarat, face below-normal rain after deficient October rainfall.
Most wheat acreage in the north-west is already irrigated.
Largely irrigated north-west wheat limits the damage, but dry Rajasthan and Gujarat could trim rabi crops and support Indian wheat prices and import interest.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.