
The 2021 US hard red winter wheat harvest was mixed, with rain and humidity in July stalling harvest in the central and Southern Plains. Average HRW quality ended better than expected at 60.3 lb test weight and 11.9% protein, while Montana's crop suffered from extreme heat.
Solid average HRW quality supports supply for bread-flour buyers, but regional weather losses in Montana tighten specific supplies and could leave prices with limited downside.
After 29 past neutral weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.