
A Brazilian central bank official said pressure on the real should ease in 2022. The bank has been intervening in the forex market since late September and has sold $3.5 billion.
The official attributed the currency's weakness mainly to fiscal sustainability risk.
Expectations of a firmer real reduce the currency pressure that has been making Brazilian exports more competitive. That could firm the dollar price of Brazilian soybeans and corn over time.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.