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A Farm Futures analyst reviewed the September Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which found 81 million more bushels of old-crop soybeans than expected. The report also showed corn and soybean usage rates, which were not fully captured in the headline numbers.
The analysis looks ahead to the October WASDE.
Higher-than-expected old-crop stocks suggest less tightness in corn and soybean supplies, which pressures prices for new-crop deliveries. The effect on farm margins depends on how usage trends develop.
farmprogress.comJacqueline HollandOct 6, 2021After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
