
USDA's October WASDE lowered its 2021 U.S. milk production estimate for the fourth consecutive month, citing fewer dairy cows and lower output per cow. The 2022 production estimate was also cut, and cheese, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts were raised.
Tighter milk supplies and higher dairy product price forecasts point to firmer milk prices, while lower dairy output reduces byproduct supply such as whey for feed.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.