
USDA's March WASDE lowered its 2022 US milk production estimate to 226.0 billion pounds, down 0.1% from 2021, citing fewer cows and slower per-cow growth. The agency raised cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts and lifted the 2022 Class III and Class IV milk price projections.
Tighter expected milk supply and higher product price forecasts point to firmer Class III and IV milk prices, which affects dairy feed demand and feed-buyer costs.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.