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African swine fever was detected in the Dominican Republic in July 2021 and has spread across the Caribbean, the first detection in the Western Hemisphere in about 40 years. The article warns that the disease is close to the US and could halt pork exports worth more than $7 billion a year if it arrived.
The USDA has pledged $500 million for surveillance.
A US outbreak would likely cut domestic hog demand and close export markets, which is bearish for lean hog prices. The risk is still conditional, so the current price effect is limited to sentiment.
wired.comMaryn McKennaOct 12, 2021After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
