The American Bakers Association warned that bakers' access to soybean oil is in crisis as biodiesel producers divert supply away from food uses. The group asked the EPA to pause biodiesel and advanced biodiesel volumes under the Renewable Fuel Standard.
Diverting soybean oil to biodiesel tightens edible oil supply and supports soybean oil prices, while a possible RVO pause would be a major policy swing that could ease that pressure.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.