
The Canadian dollar fell to a seven-week low on Friday as COVID infection surges in Europe hit riskier currencies. It was down about 0.8% on the week, its fifth straight weekly decline, as oil slumped toward $78 a barrel and Austria moved toward a full lockdown.
Renewed lockdowns in Europe threaten fuel demand and push crude lower, pressuring oil-linked currencies. Safe-haven dollar buying compounds the move against commodity exporters.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Confirms oil slumped toward $78 as Austria moved to full lockdown, supporting the demand-fear mechanism, though it is a currency-focused piece.