MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville says Canadian canola crushers remain eager to buy seed at record prices after a drought in Western Canada. He estimates the 2021/22 canola crush at 9.4 million tonnes and exports at 4 to 4.5 million tonnes, with ending stocks near 650,000 tonnes.
Sharply lower canola exports and minimal ending stocks point to tight supplies that keep canola meal and oil prices supported. Crushers' willingness to pay premiums reinforces firm seed and meal values for feed buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.