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ABARES forecasts Australian canola production will fall 41% in 2023-24 to 4.9 million tonnes, from 8.6 million tonnes. Canola plantings are expected to drop 11% because of dry conditions.
Australian canola exports are estimated at 4 to 4.7 million tonnes, down from 6.7 million tonnes.
Australia is a major canola exporter, so a 41% drop in output would tighten global vegetable oil and meal supplies. This would support canola meal and soybean oil prices, especially in the EU.
mintecglobal.comKyle HollandJul 28, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
