
Investors expect the dollar to strengthen in 2022 as the Fed is seen ending tapering in March and starting rate hikes in June. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up about 5% this year, and hedge fund net long positions are the highest since June 2019.
Expected dollar strength and tighter US policy tend to lower dollar-denominated commodity prices and shift currency flows, affecting feed ingredient costs for importers.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.