
With crude oil above $90 a barrel, India's record forex reserves of $634 billion may not fully shield the rupee from higher oil import costs. Forex reserves covered 12.8 months of merchandise imports at end-December 2021, down from 17.7 months in FY21.
Rising oil import bills pressure the rupee and India's import capacity, which can reduce purchasing of dollar-priced feed and oilseed products while energy costs feed into freight and processing.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.