
The Canadian dollar edged higher on Jan. 18, outperforming other G10 currencies as oil rose to its highest level since 2014.
Brent and WTI-linked crude settled 1.9% higher at $85.43 a barrel after attacks in the Middle East added to a tight supply outlook. Traders bet the Bank of Canada would raise rates as soon as the following week.
Middle East supply disruption lifts crude prices, which raises diesel and energy costs for feed mills and grain transport. A firmer loonie on oil and rate expectations makes imported feed ingredients cheaper in Canada.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.