European diesel and gasoil markets tightened in January after expected arrivals from East of Suez fell sharply. Closed arbitrage economics in late December and weak local refining margins limited supply, and buying interest for cargoes rose.
Lower European imports and weak refinery output tighten diesel supply and lift fuel costs for European feed logistics. The shortfall in cargo arrivals is a direct supply driver of price strength.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.