
USDA data shows U.S. milk cow numbers have declined each month since June 2021, with Q4 2021 dairy cow numbers projected at 9.395 million head. Milk per cow was lowered and total milk production forecasts were cut for 2021 and 2022 while prices are forecast higher.
Shrinking herds and lower milk output tighten dairy supplies, supporting higher milk and dairy product prices and limiting feed demand growth from dairy herds.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.