
USDA's January report lowered 2021-22 global corn, soybean and cotton carryout estimates. US corn, soybean and wheat carryouts were raised, with US corn ending stocks at 1.540 billion bushels versus 1.472 expected.
Global soybean carryout fell to 95.20 MMT against an expected 99.93 MMT.
A tighter global soybean carryout than expected supports soybean prices and raises import demand for US beans, while larger US corn stocks cap corn prices.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.