
The dollar index hit a two-week high on Monday as St. Louis Fed President Bullard called for faster rate hikes after a strong US jobs report. Investors also moved to safe havens amid Russia-Ukraine tensions.
A firmer dollar on rate-hike expectations and risk aversion tends to pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices, while Ukraine tensions add upside risk for grains and oilseeds.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.