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USDA's Milk Production report showed December 2021 US milk output at 18.8 billion pounds, down 0.15% from a year earlier. The national dairy herd fell to 9.375 million cows, 67,000 head below a year ago and 132,000 below its May peak.
A shrinking dairy herd and flat output keep milk supply tight, which supports milk prices. Lower cow numbers also reduce demand for feed ingredients over time.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.