USDA's February 2022 Beef/Cattle Outlook reports the January 1 cattle inventory at 91.9 million head, down 2%, with beef cows down 2.3% on poor pasture in the West and Plains. Hay stocks were down 6%, and producers plan to retain 3% fewer beef replacement heifers.
Fewer heifers retained signals the herd will not expand soon, keeping cattle supplies tight and supporting prices. Lower hay stocks also raise feeding costs for producers.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.