
USDA's January 31 Cattle report put the total US cattle herd on January 1 at 91.9 million head, down 2% and the smallest since 2016, with beef cows at 30.1 million. Cattle on feed were 14.7 million head, up 0.2%.
A shrinking herd and continued strong exports point to tighter beef supplies and potentially higher cattle prices. Smaller cow numbers reduce future feeder cattle supply.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.