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The USDA January cattle report showed the US herd at 86.6 million head, down more than 495,000 head year over year and the smallest since 1951. The rate of decline slowed to under 1% this year, compared with about 2% in 2024 and more than 3% in 2023.
Analysts say the herd may not have bottomed yet.
A herd at a multi-decade low, with a slower decline rate, keeps cattle supplies tight and supports high cattle and beef prices. Rebuilding takes years, so the supply constraint is likely to persist.
hpj.comKen EriksenMar 14, 2025After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
