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Moroccan phosphate producer OCP remains shut out of the US market by countervailing duties of nearly 20%, so its cargoes are going to Canada. OCP is appealing the duties at the US Court of International Trade and preparing to regain US market share.
Continued exclusion of OCP keeps US phosphate supply tight and supports high domestic DAP and MAP prices, though the impact depends on the court outcome.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.