
USDA's June supply and demand report raised its 2020 all-milk price forecast by $2.10 to $16.65 per cwt and its 2021 forecast by $1.20 to $16.20. Cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk prices were raised for both years, while whey was lowered.
USDA also raised its 2021 milk production forecast on higher cow numbers and stronger per-cow output.
Higher price forecasts reflect firmer demand, but expanding US milk output for 2021 is a bearish offset for future dairy prices.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.