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An expert briefing says the real rose from about 5.7 per dollar in late December 2021 to about 5.01 on February 23, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine. It argues that rising interest rates, commodity prices and cheap Brazilian equities drew capital inflows that may not last.
A reversal is likely to be driven mainly by international factors.
If capital inflows reverse, the real could weaken, raising the cost of dollar-priced feed ingredients for Brazilian buyers. The outlook is uncertain, so the price implication is mixed.
doi.orgMar 31, 2022After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
