
The CME Fed-funds curve kept the implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the November 6-7 meeting near zero for a fifth straight day. Bloomberg's poll of analysts left the Bank of Canada rate unchanged at 4.75% through November, with first cut expected mid-2027.
Stable rate expectations on both sides of the border reduce pressure on the dollar and CAD, leaving feed input costs driven mainly by grain fundamentals rather than financing shifts.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.