Brazil's federal government announced on March 11 a waiver of Pis and Cofins taxes on biodiesel until December 31, aimed at easing fuel prices for consumers. Producers are still working out pricing and output three months after the shift away from auctions, and rumors of biodiesel imports in April are circulating.
Lower biodiesel taxes and possible imports weaken domestic biodiesel margins and reduce soybean oil demand from the biofuel sector, which is bearish for soy oil and by extension soybean crush economics.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.