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A commentary piece argues the euro will keep falling, mostly against the yen, as French government bond risk premiums have nearly doubled. The stress has moved into the cross-currency basis, a gauge of demand for dollars.
EUR/USD options do not yet confirm an imminent decline.
Rising French risk premiums and dollar funding demand can weaken the euro against the dollar, raising import costs for European feed buyers. The gap between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY signals suggests the dollar pressure may be concentrated.
newsletter.crossvolresearch.comCrossVolOct 31, 2026After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
