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June acreage survey and quarterly stocks — historically one of the most volatile report days.
USDA NASSAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports released on 2017-06-30 reset market expectations for planted area and old-crop supplies (supply mechanism), and this report day is historically one of the most volatile, so it plausibly drove the 2.58% corn move.
The June 30, 2017 USDA Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports landed on the same day as the move and are historically high-volatility releases; any shift in soybean planted area or stocks versus trade expectations would reprice the soybean complex, including meal, through supply expectations and short-covering.
The June 30, 2017 USDA Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports landed on the same day as the move and are historically high-volatility releases; any shift in soybean planted area or stocks versus trade expectations would reprice the soybean complex, including meal, through supply expectations and short-covering.
The June 30, 2017 USDA Acreage report showed all-wheat and spring wheat plantings at historically low levels amid the Northern Plains drought, tightening the supply outlook and driving a sharp rally that spilled over into SRW futures on a typically volatile report day.
The June 30, 2017 USDA Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports landed on the same day as the move, and these reports routinely reset supply expectations; a soybean acreage or stocks figure that differed from trade estimates plausibly triggered the sharp 2.9% one-day repricing.
The June 30, 2017 USDA Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports landed on the same day as the move, and these reports routinely reset supply expectations; a soybean acreage or stocks figure that differed from trade estimates plausibly triggered the sharp 2.9% one-day repricing.
