
Indonesia widened its export ban on raw cooking-oil materials to include crude palm oil and refined palm oil, reversing the economic minister's statement from the previous day that only refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein would be covered. Ships were deployed to enforce the ban, and industry participants described themselves as shocked.
Indonesia is the world's largest palm oil exporter, so a ban covering crude and refined palm oil removes a large share of seaborne vegetable oil supply and tends to lift prices across edible oils.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.