Why India shouldn't get carried away by wheat, rice export bonanza due to Ukraine war

After 431 past bullish trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Apr 28, 2022India's wheat export boom brings a bonanza to farmers, and budget relief | Reuters-1.3%
• Jun 21, 2023India to resume exporting wheat, broken rice to 4 countries - India Today+9.4%
• Sep 25, 2017Russia: wheat export prices are rising due to good-7.1%
• Mar 21, 2022India to boost wheat exports to fill void left by Ukraine conflict 21.03.2022 - UkrAgroConsult+15.8%
• Jul 24, 2018Due to higher prices, Russia increases wheat export-1.0%

After 189 past bullish trade events, RICE moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jun 21, 2023India to resume exporting wheat, broken rice to 4 countries - India Today+2.8%
• Oct 14, 2021India could grab a big chunk in global exports of wheat and rice - India Xports 2.0-1.4%
• Nov 5, 2020Wheat, rice contribute 50% to agri export - The Tribune-2.3%
• Jun 21, 2023India approves wheat, broken rice exports requests from 4 countries+2.8%
• Sep 27, 2023US, UK, EU & others question India at WTO over wheat, rice and onion export restrictions-2.6%