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The NGSA projects US dry gas output averaging 112.5 bcf/d this winter, up about 2.5 bcf/d year on year, with demand growing 1.6 bcf/d. Storage is expected to start the heating season near 3.85 Tcf, and Henry Hub winter forwards are priced at $3.43/MMBtu versus $4.51 last winter.
Ample supply growth outpacing demand points to lower US winter gas prices, which reduces feed-grain and energy input cost pressure.
After 62 past bearish report events, Natural Gas moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.