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Sanctions banning Russian fertilizer exports and China's urea and phosphate production lockdown are squeezing global supplies. Brazil, the largest fertilizer importer, sources 85% of its needs abroad and had relied on Russia for over half its potash before the war.
Brazil's need for potash by September for the 2023 soybean crop keeps potash demand firm and supports prices for the coming season.
farmprogress.comJacqueline HollandMay 26, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
