
OPEC and its allies agreed on May 5 to raise June output targets by 432,000 barrels per day, continuing the gradual unwinding of record supply curbs. The EU had announced plans to restrict Russian oil imports within six months and refined products by year-end.
The modest increase does little to offset expected losses of Russian supply, so crude prices are likely to stay firm. Higher energy costs raise the price of feed production and transport.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.