OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers will raise output by 432,000 b/d in June, following their May 5 videoconference ministerial meeting. OPEC cut its 2022 world oil demand growth forecast by 480,000 b/d, citing China's lockdown measures, and lowered its non-OPEC supply forecast by 600,000 b/d, partly on lower Russian supply.
The demand downgrade and lower non-OPEC supply roughly offset the planned hike, leaving the balance tight. Tight crude supports fuel and feed freight costs.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.